Normalization of the Wholesale Electricity Market: Who Wins and Who Loses?

The Secretariat of Energy has launched a major—and long-announced—change in the Wholesale Electricity Market (MEM). The core idea is simple: organize prices, make their formation more transparent, and shift the focus from "great centralization" to a scheme where each actor assumes more responsibilities

Households with a Safety Net, Industry in the Open

The official directive is clear: residential demand will continue to have priority access to the cheapest energy—hydroelectric, nuclear, and existing contracts. For most households, this acts as a buffer against sharp price hikes.

On the other hand, large users (GUDI) will become increasingly exposed to the system’s “street price”: the Spot market. There, the value of energy responds to marginal costs and new rules that seek to better reflect the reality of dispatch. In short: if you are a large industrial or commercial entity and you don't hedge, you will feel the price wave more acutely.

The projections from the official economic analysis are a warning: average annual increases of around 15% for large users, with peaks of up to 35% in winter. The average price for this segment could hover around USD 94/MWh, compared to USD 75–77/MWh for the MEM in general. And there is a milestone that shouldn't be missed: various power purchase agreements (PPAs) begin to expire starting in 2028, which increases exposure to Spot volatility and lowers predictability.

What to Do? Two Defenses: Contracts and Efficiency

None of this will catch the prepared off guard. The official scheme itself points to the way out:

• Contractualize in the Term Market (MAT): Sealing bilateral energy and capacity contracts is the most direct way to cap the cost and avoid surprises in sensitive months.

• Energy Efficiency: What you don't consume, you don't pay for. And every avoided kWh exposes you less to the short-term marginal price, which will have a growing weight.

Think of it as insurance: securing part of your demand and reducing inefficient consumption is the cheapest hedging strategy available.

Another fundamental change: fuel management is shifting from being "all in the same place" to becoming decentralized. The path is gradual, but the destination is already written in the schedule: by 2028, generators must fully manage their fuel. The implicit message is that the final price of energy will increasingly reflect the real cost of producing it (gas, alternative fuels, transport).

This is not a vague threat for "someday." It starts with the first adjustments in 2025 and deepens until 2028. That’s when the playing field changes for everyone: generators managing their fuel, less centralization, and a much more "open" price market for the industry. If you are a large user, 2025–2028 is your window to organize contracts and accelerate efficiency. After that, the climb gets steeper.

Who Wins and Who Loses?

• Households: Maintain a relative umbrella of stability thanks to the priority of cheaper energy.

• Large Users: Pay the cost of the transition if they don't act. Those who hedge in time win; those who don't are left at the mercy of the Spot market.

Final message, without mincing words: those who move now will spend less tomorrow. Those who don't will pay the full bill of the new normal.

The process is underway, but definitions are still pending. The rules are still under construction and will depend on the resolutions issued by the Secretariat of Energy. Until that framework is finalized, the recommendation is to watch the official gazette and CAMMESA communications as if they were the weather report: every update can change the forecast, and it pays to be ready to adjust course.